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Fundamental Valuation
International
May '08
Newsletter
Future is quite predictable; difficult but not
entirely unknown. Any one who didn’t believe that one day the US
real estate bubble will burst and that over leveraging of housing
will not end up badly was in complete denial. Take energy today. Oil
prices are rising without control. Is the future outcome of this so
difficult to speculate?
Bubbles are the norm not an exception. Tulip mania,
Asian Contagion, numerous commodity boom/busts and the internet
craze; bubbles tend to form in exciting times, positive or negative
only to certainly deflate. Markets, stocks or commodities, are not
much different.
There is yet another call for outrageous oil price
forecast, now in the $150 range. Do I hear
$500?

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