Module 15 Examples
Three point moving average forecast
|
|
|
Value |
3 point moving average
calculation |
3 point moving average |
3 point forecast |
error Calculation |
error |
|
1996 |
Oct |
2000 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Nov |
1350 |
|
1767 |
|
|
|
|
|
Dec |
1950 |
|
1758 |
|
|
|
|
1997 |
Jan |
1975 |
|
2342 |
1767 |
1975-1767 |
208 |
|
|
Feb |
3100 |
|
2275 |
1758 |
3100-1758 |
1342 |
|
|
Mar |
1750 |
|
2133 |
2342 |
1750-2342 |
-592 |
|
|
Apr |
1550 |
|
1533 |
2275 |
1550-2275 |
-725 |
|
|
May |
1300 |
|
1682 |
2133 |
1300-2133 |
-833 |
|
|
Jun |
2200 |
|
2092 |
1533 |
2200-1533 |
667 |
|
|
Jul |
2775 |
|
2442 |
1682 |
2775-1682 |
1092 |
|
|
Aug |
2350 |
|
|
2092 |
2350-2092 |
258 |
Exponential smoothing ES Forecast
|
|
|
Value |
Exponential Smoothing
calculation |
Exponential Smoothing |
Exponential Smoothing Forecast |
error Calculation |
error |
|
1996 |
Oct |
2000 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Nov |
1350 |
.9 x2000 + .1 x1350 |
1935 |
|
|
|
|
|
Dec |
1950 |
.9 x1935 + .1 x1950 |
1937 |
|
|
|
|
1997 |
Jan |
1975 |
.9 x1937 + .1 x1975 |
1941 |
1937 |
1975-1937 |
38 |
|
|
Feb |
3100 |
.9 x1941 + .1 x3100 |
2057 |
1941 |
3100-1941 |
1159 |
|
|
Mar |
1750 |
.9 x2057 + .1 x1750 |
2026 |
2057 |
1750-2057 |
-307 |
|
|
Apr |
1550 |
.9 x2026 + .1 x1550 |
1978 |
2026 |
1550-2026 |
-476 |
|
|
May |
1300 |
.9 x1975 + .1 x1300 |
1910 |
1978 |
1300-1978 |
-678 |
|
|
Jun |
2200 |
.9 x1910 + .1 x2200 |
1939 |
1910 |
2200-1910 |
290 |
|
|
Jul |
2775 |
.9 x1939 + .1 x2775 |
2023 |
1939 |
2775-1939 |
836 |
|
|
Aug |
2350 |
.9 x2023 + .1 x2350 |
2056 |
2023 |
2350-2023 |
327 |
MSE
Calculate the MSE for both advise which is the better forecast and advise on September Forecast
Exponential Smoothing MSE as lower number indicating better
results September would be 2056