Quantitative Methods

MODULE 1

 

Introducing Statistics

Statistic can be divided into two parts:

 

Descriptive:

Sorting large amounts of data in ways, which enable its main features to be seen immediately.

Inferential:

A small amount of data which has been collected (call a sample) can be used to infer general conclusions about the total amount of similar data that exist uncollected in the world (called the population).

 

Probability

 

A Priori ’

Event is calculated by logic

Relative Frequency

Measurement after a large number of trials.

Subjective Approach

(Bayesian) Degree of belief expressed as a probability.

 

Normal Distribution

 

Ø      Symmetrical,

Ø      Bell Shaped, ‘

Ø      Unimodal.

The Hump is the average of the variable.

The standard deviation is the spread of the variable.

 

Wrong Use of Statistics Six Common Errors

 

1) Ambiguity of Definition

 ie does average reflect mean, median, or mode? (esp average)

2) Pictorial Representation Misleading

 Is graph misleading?

3) Sample Bias

Data collection, phrasing of survey questions, interviewer bias?

Is like being compared with like?

4) Omissions

What is missing

Is additional information missing that should have been included that could have changed the conclusion

5) Logical Error

 Do the numbers measure directly what is being studied?

 Are there causal relationships?

A strong associative relationship may not be casual

6) Technical Error

Lack of understanding of math details.

Have statistical definitions/techniques/methods been properly applied.

 

How to Spot Statistical Errors

 

Who is providing the evidence?

Who gains by convincing you

Where did the data come from?

Are measurements equal, scales the same too many decimals

Does it pass the common sense test?

 

Has one of the 6 Common Errors been committed?